Sunday, August 26, 2012

Is Finland Leaving the Eurozone?



The Economist has wonderful pieces on Finland's current debate on whether or not to leave the eurozone. After reading it, one must ask: will Finland want to leave the union and cause a "Fixit"?

One would think no, especially considering that Finland's economy thrived once adopting the euro. But the fact that Finland has been so successful, and doesn't really feel as "European" as most EU countries makes it reluctant to help those who have failed (see Greece). Here are some of the striking facts from the Economist:
- "The IMF reckons the combined gross debt of euro-area countries will peak at 91% of GDP next year, when the ratio in Finland will be just 53%, the lowest of any euro-zone country bar Estonia and Luxembourg."
-  "Only 31% of Finnish exports go to other euro-zone countries, a smaller share than is sold by Eurosceptic Britain."
-  "Five of Finland’s seven biggest foreign markets lie outside the euro zone. Its biggest supplier is Russia and its largest single customer is Sweden, whose economy is growing more quickly than Finland’s."
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Source: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/06/29/fixit_the_hot_new_phrase_that_might_explain_how_the_euro_ends.html
- "Unemployment has come down from a peak of 8.7% in early 2010, to 7.5%."
There is more and more. But public opinion still shows that Finland wants to be in the eurozone, mostly because Finland is more afraid of Russia than the common currency.

Yet, even a renowned economist like Nouriel Roubini is on board the "Fixit" bandwagon. It all hinges upon whether or not the politically center coalition can hold out against the extremely nationalist True Finn party. That coalition, though, may break if eurozone news continues to worsen. By that point, the "Finn red line" may have been crossed.

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